Adobe expects traffic from generative AI tools to US retail websites to grow 130% this holiday season compared with last year, and 141% on Thanksgiving, according to its 2026 holiday forecast published on 28 September.
The forecast draws on Adobe Analytics, which measures visits to retailers’ websites. Adobe says AI-driven traffic to retail sites was already up 127% year on year in August. It expects overall online holiday spending to grow 6.7%, with online making up about $1 in every $4 spent on retail goods.
This year’s growth starts from a much higher base. Last holiday season Adobe recorded AI-referred retail traffic up about 693%, and said those visitors converted 31% more often than shoppers arriving from other sources. Adobe reports growth rates rather than AI’s share of all retail visits, so the figures show how fast the channel is growing, not how big it is.
Why it matters: more shoppers now ask a chatbot what to buy before they reach a store’s website. That is why retailers from Amazon to Walmart are building their own assistants and setting rules for AI agents that shop on a customer’s behalf.
Read Adobe’s forecast: Adobe 2026 holiday shopping report